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The Taliban is Back

The enemy at the gates was the thought going through my mind when I read about the imminent capture of Kabul and with that the whole of Afghanistan by the Taliban in August 2021. According to western analysts it was much faster than they had expected. Then again, the same set of people also thought that they can negotiate with the Taliban and reach a deal on an inclusive government. Some people never learn from the past. 

Western countries were adamant on not giving the new Taliban regime legitimacy through recognition. The condition put forth was that the West will see if the Taliban has changed and become moderate and then move to accept the government in Kabul. When did the tiger change its stripes? If the Taliban had changed, then there is no way they would have executed their shift takeover of Afghanistan. It needed the ruthlessness to instill fear in the people and Afghan army to overrun the country in a few weeks time. Talk about change- the Taliban is, if it is even possible, more shrewd than earlier. 

The West and in particular the United States has once again been taken for a very expensive ride. The Karzai-Ghani duo kept the US ignorant of the reality beyond Kabul and milked them for literally billions. There is not much to show for the money poured in by the rich countries as all saw the state of the schools for example in the aftermath of the takeover. A few politicians and officials got very rich and have fled the country. No wonder that Taliban had a relatively easy task of capturing the country side and the main towns and cities of Afghanistan. Once the US troops withdrew, the Taliban had a walkover. 

US intelligence is not that bad that they had no inkling of the open support from across the border to the Taliban- moral, financial and even weapons. It was hilarious to hear the Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan denying the government support to the Taliban to a BBC journalist. Imran, once the favourite of the West, tried very hard to educate the world about the fact that Haqqanis were a Pushtun tribe and were present on both sides of the border. With this the former fast bowler tried to spin a doosra and ended up bowling a no-ball. 

The lesson from this debacle is very simple- do not try and pass off a revenge war as a fight for democracy. Take your revenge and leave, otherwise it will be very expensive, both in terms of money and men. Trying to impose a western style democracy will fail unless the people want it. Where the people have revolted and demanded democracy and freedom, US has not been forthcoming in its support due to other geo-political concerns. US was criticised for the manner of the withdrawal of its troops but that was an afterthought. What is done is done. Now the question is about legitimising the Taliban rule and this will happen sooner than later as the West has no choice. The Taliban is going nowhere. It has popular support and China is willing to do business with Afghanistan. Pakistan knows that tomorrow the West will need its leverage with the Taliban to negotiate. And, lets not forget the ISIL, who have once again demonstrated that they cannot be ignored in the future negotiations.

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