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Expansionist Putin

 Vladimir Putin has shown the world that he will consistently invade a neighbour in a bid to send out a strong message to the West not to take him lightly. He went into Chechnya twice, once into Georgia and now for the second time invaded Ukraine. The immediate aim of these intrusions is to establish a buffer between the West and Russia. Russia's history is a clue to the aggressive nature of President Putin. Twice in the 20th Century, Prussian army and then Nazi Germany breached fortress Russia and only after a great sacrifice was Russia able to push back the enemy. During the 60 years of the Cold War, Soviets had Communist Eastern Europe acting as buffer states, shielding the empire from immediate western attacks. Decade after Russia was reborn again, with Putin in the driving seat, the vast nation has started back on the journey to re-establish itself as a superpower. 

The immediate fallout of the 20-day war against Ukraine has been the increased fear in the West of being drawn into a bigger conflict and even the use of nuclear weapons. It is but natural for the West to come to the support of Ukraine but only through sanctions. Military support is vital for Ukraine to have a fighting chance against the powerful Russian firepower. This may not materialised due to the threats of the use of biological and nuclear weapons by Russia if forced into a stalemate. But, the West has seen through the rhetoric of Putin and is actively arming the Ukrainian resistance. It now looks clear that Russia made a big mistake of invading Ukraine and this will be a long-drawn war where either country will not succeed in their objective. 

Russia is claiming that the sanctions are hurting the west more than Russia. This may be true in the short-run as global oil prices have led to high inflation in western countries. There is shortage of wheat that has led to fear of countries like Afghanistan not able to feed its poor. The war coupled with the post-COVID 19 economic slowdown is having a major effect on global stability. Russia is already making plans of containing the war to the eastern sector of Ukraine. It is waiting for a face-saving offer from the west, which looks distant. Politically, the war in Ukraine may result in the weakening of President Putin and the diminishing of Russian influence world over. India has an unique opportunity to reduce its dependency on Russia politically and at the same time diversify its military purchases.  

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