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Taiwan Under Attack

 The recent visit by the house majority leader Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan brought attention back on the 'renegade province'. China has been looking for an excuse to launch a military offesive to regain Taiwan. The military exercise is aimed at an economic blockade of Taiwan and as a warning against recognising the break-away province by any country. It will be difficult for China to keep up the pressure for long but it wants to make it clear to the domestic more than the international audience that it can go to any lengths to defend its 'sovereignity'. 

The visit by the third-in-line for the US Presidency Nancy Pelosi is the first by a high-ranking US official in 25 years. The reaction by China in the previous instance was similar but the intensity this time around is much more. China is now a superpower with a formidable military to back its rhetoric. Taiwan is no match for an aggresive China but the continued support by US has kept Taiwan out of direct confrontation. Things have changed in the last quarter of a century. The phenomenal economic growth that China has witnessed has translated into both a economic superpower as well as a military one. 

The modernisation of the armed forces in the last decade since Xi Jinping has taken charge has been dramatic. China now can boast a military that can stand-up to even the US in terms of not just numbers but technology. Defense experts insist that China still has a way to go to take on the full might of the United States militarily. The trump card that US has is the aircraft carriers (a few supercarriers) that gives it the edge in  terms of force multiplier. China has just two aircraft carriers operational as opposed to twelve of the US. The US has plans to not only increase the strength by adding two more to its present fleet but replace the existing ones to supercarriers, each having 100 plus aircrafts on the deck. 

A direct military confrontation is not in anyone's interest. China may have been emboldened by Russia's Ukarine adventure but would be well-advised to learn from the price Russia is paying and will pay for many years to come. China may militarily succeed in reunifying Taiwan but the cost would be economic hardship for the chinese people. There is already signs of China facing the consequences of a strict Covid19 policy in terms of economic downturn. Large-scale unemployment may be disastrous for the ruling CPC as the world saw in Sri Lanka. Diplomacy is the only way to win over Taiwan but China has to show nay prove that it will abide by the promises made. The reference here is to Hongkong and one-China two-system that was agreed upon has been dismantled by China. 

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